International Coastal Management:
Tools for Successful Regional Partnerships and Initiatives

This presentation will provide an overview of climate change issues unique to Canada, with a focus on implementation of the Kyoto Protocol in Canada, and the role Canada may or should play in the development of the climate change regime internationally.

In terms of climate change impacts, the Canadian arctic is expected to be one of the most drastically affected regions in the world, with predictions in average temperature changes in the range of 10 degrees or more, completely changing the ecosystems in the Canadian North. Other areas significantly affected include coastal areas, where sea level rise, increased severe weather events, and changes in ocean currents and temperatures are expected. The resulting impact on coastal ecosystems is still not well understood, but recent collapses of cod and salmon stocks in Canada are thought by some to be caused or contributed to by changes in water temperatures. A third area likely to be significantly affected is the Canadian prairies, the heart of Canada's agriculture industry. In this part of Canada, significant increases in temperature combined with expected decreases in precipitation are likely to create new challenges for an already threatened industry. Lack of predictability of emerging new weather patterns will make crop selection and planning difficult.

Canada ratified Kyoto in December, 2002, and has now formally entered the implementation phase. Canada's implementation plan calls on individuals to reduce their GHG emissions by one ton each per year for the first commitment period. Large industrial emitters received a number of concessions leading up to the ratification decision, including a 55 MT reduction limit from business as usual, access to domestic and international credits to meet any targets, a commitment to set targets based on intensity rather than based on absolute limits, and a commitment from the Canadian government to cover any cost above $15 per ton of credit purchased by any large emitter to meet its target. Canada is currently in the process of negotiating covenants with large emitters. Other measures, especially in the areas of transportation, buildings, and renewable sources of energy, are still under development.

Canada expects to rely significantly on the use of sinks in meeting its first commitment period target. Climate change negotiations internationally have been more or less stalled since the signing of the Marrakech Accords in November 2001. The inadequacy of developed country targets and the absence of Australia, the United States, and possibly Russia from the process have made it difficult to bring developing countries on board. The US, on the other hand, has indicated its refusal to join the process as long as developing countries are not part of the process in the form of emission reduction targets. The further lack of commitment from the industrialized world to assisting developing countries in any meaningful way with sustainable development has now created a significant impasse in the negotiations. Canada may have an important role to play in finding a way to bring both sides along to accelerate the modest international momentum on GHG emission reductions achieved by bringing Kyoto into force.